Pyongyang Mystery

WHO will succeed the ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong II has gained currency of late. Speculation is rife that Jong II, last seen on January 16 this year in an undated news agency photo wearing glasses while on a visit to a silk factory in Pyongyang, has named the youngest of his three sons – Kim Jong Un – to succeed him. Un is the son born through the ailing North Korea supreme leader's late wife Ko Yong Hi and educated in Switzerland. Pyongyang watchers greenlight Un's nomination – unofficial though to the outside world thus far – on the grounds that he is of leadership material and a "desire to grab power".

Reports emanating from Tokyo, Washington and everywhere else – except Pyongyang – indicate uncertainty over the ruler's successor. The name of Kim's eldest son Kim Jong Nam is also doing the rounds as a possible nominal head of state. What triggered his preference for the youngest, twentyish Un over the 38-year old Nam is the latter's act of bravado by entering Japan on a fake passport in 2001 and responding with a bland and incredible explanation that he was on a visit to Tokyo Disneyland. For quite a long time, Nam was considered to be the favourite of the incumbent though. Kim Jong Chol, the middle son, is already out of the reckoning. Interesting rationale, no doubt. However, anything is possible in an opaque society such as North Korea's.

Pyongyang's disinclination to officially confirm that a succession plan is in place is to obfuscate that Kim Jong II is not seriously ill and create an impression that he is still in control of the country on a daily basis. The world refuses to believe the undated photographs released by the North Korean news agencies because of the secrecy surrounding the staunchest rival of the United States in the Far East region; the lack of access to the outside media freely to report from the North Korean soil adds to the incredulity theory.

All said and done, North Korean economy is not in a good shape. There are several crises looming large on the horizon, including an acute food shortage. Primarily, it is still locked in a global standoff over its nuclear programme. Realizing its inability to tame the boiler-suited North Koeran ruler on its own, the US quietly accepted the six-party talks involving China, South Korea, Japan and Russia to put an end to Pyongyang's nuclear build-up capabilities. While the world's super power has dropped North Korea's name from the list of terror-sponsoring countries in a placatory attempt, Kong Jong II torpedoed the talks by claiming that his verbal commitments on verification of its nuclear programme by outside parties are just that – verbal. Nothing more, nothing less. Indeed, a smart diplomatic manoeuvre on the part of the supposedly ailing Machiavellian from Pyongyang.

Under the new Barrack Obama dispensation, the Washington-Pyongyang relations are unlikely to change drastically. The new Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton has vowed to pursue the present incumbent Condelleeza Rice's six-party formula. This is where Kim Jong's successor plans come into the picture. Who is the ruler counts a great deal in sensing the direction in which the relations would be moving in the days to come and chalk out a suitable strategy. To whom Kim Jong II will bequeath his legacy – Un or Nam - is still anybody's guess.

THIS EDITORIAL appeared in OMAN TRIBUNE, 17 January 2009