At the Crossroads

The stars of Anwar Ibrahim, the former Deputy Premier of Malaysia and the leader of three-party conservative Islamic PAS party, are on the ascendancy. A decade after leaving the political stage, he is re-emerging as a strong political force to reckon with. Soon after winning the November election with spectacular results - one third of Parliament seats and five out of 13 states - thus paving way for his re-entry into active politics, the Opposition alliance has dealt a several blow to the ruling alliance led by United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) by winning a crucial by-election from the coastal seat of Kuala Terengganu this week.

The Terengganu defeat is a personal blow for Deputy Premier Najib Razak, who incidentally led the ruling alliance both in November general elections and the recent by-election. Come March, he would be elevated to the Premier's seat replacing Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as agreed upon by UMNO, which has been at the helm of affairs for over half a century. The 27-million Malaysia, populated with Muslims, Chinese and Indian minorities, is facing trouble on several fronts. Though UMNO has the backing of majority Malays, the party is losing grip on the natives on account of mismanagement. Simultaneously it has been gradually losing the support of the ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities through its pro-Malay policy orientation.

Astute and shrewd Ibrahim has, rightly, cashed in on the growing disenchantment of these groups and staging a cool comeback. Though the next general elections are not due before 2013, a regime change is a possibility if Ibrahim could convince 30 odd law-makers to defect to his rainbow coalition that could disturb the political equilibrium in the 222-seat Parliament. The Opposition is wooing the ethnic minorities with the promise of removing the 38-year old policy which stipulates that non-Malays have to pay more for homes and enjoy access to jobs and contracts only after Malays' allocation has been fully met. Ibrahim is not to be taken lightly if the poll performance is any indication. Notwithstanding the fact that he could not realize the dream of toppling the government before September last year, the former powerhorse has not abandoned his main objective: get back to power. Surprisingly, the electorate has ignored the apprehensions that his alliance is not a workable proposition and voted for his alliance. This definitely is a big boost for Ibrahim.

Opinion is divided as to how seriously the Kuala Terengganu poll verdict would affect Najib's future. Until now, he remains unopposed for the Premier's post. But anything can happen between now and the D-day. UMNO, or for that matter Najib, has to focus on addressing a few key issues on a war footing: regain the confidence of the majority Malays through the promise of good governance and simultaneously win over the ethnic minorities that UMNO is an inclusive party which will work for the best interests all people irrespective of their caste, creed and religion. Indeed, it will be tough call, but a party that has been in power for more than half a century knows the power dynamics. The Kuala Terengganu verdict should serve as a warning bell for the ruling elite. Those who ignore people's wishes in a democratic set up have a heavy price to pay. Is Najib ready to sit in the Opposition for the first time in the Malaysian Parliament and create history of different sorts? We don't think so.

THIS EDITORIAL appeared in OMAN TRIBUNE, 20 January 2009

Pyongyang Mystery

WHO will succeed the ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong II has gained currency of late. Speculation is rife that Jong II, last seen on January 16 this year in an undated news agency photo wearing glasses while on a visit to a silk factory in Pyongyang, has named the youngest of his three sons – Kim Jong Un – to succeed him. Un is the son born through the ailing North Korea supreme leader's late wife Ko Yong Hi and educated in Switzerland. Pyongyang watchers greenlight Un's nomination – unofficial though to the outside world thus far – on the grounds that he is of leadership material and a "desire to grab power".

Reports emanating from Tokyo, Washington and everywhere else – except Pyongyang – indicate uncertainty over the ruler's successor. The name of Kim's eldest son Kim Jong Nam is also doing the rounds as a possible nominal head of state. What triggered his preference for the youngest, twentyish Un over the 38-year old Nam is the latter's act of bravado by entering Japan on a fake passport in 2001 and responding with a bland and incredible explanation that he was on a visit to Tokyo Disneyland. For quite a long time, Nam was considered to be the favourite of the incumbent though. Kim Jong Chol, the middle son, is already out of the reckoning. Interesting rationale, no doubt. However, anything is possible in an opaque society such as North Korea's.

Pyongyang's disinclination to officially confirm that a succession plan is in place is to obfuscate that Kim Jong II is not seriously ill and create an impression that he is still in control of the country on a daily basis. The world refuses to believe the undated photographs released by the North Korean news agencies because of the secrecy surrounding the staunchest rival of the United States in the Far East region; the lack of access to the outside media freely to report from the North Korean soil adds to the incredulity theory.

All said and done, North Korean economy is not in a good shape. There are several crises looming large on the horizon, including an acute food shortage. Primarily, it is still locked in a global standoff over its nuclear programme. Realizing its inability to tame the boiler-suited North Koeran ruler on its own, the US quietly accepted the six-party talks involving China, South Korea, Japan and Russia to put an end to Pyongyang's nuclear build-up capabilities. While the world's super power has dropped North Korea's name from the list of terror-sponsoring countries in a placatory attempt, Kong Jong II torpedoed the talks by claiming that his verbal commitments on verification of its nuclear programme by outside parties are just that – verbal. Nothing more, nothing less. Indeed, a smart diplomatic manoeuvre on the part of the supposedly ailing Machiavellian from Pyongyang.

Under the new Barrack Obama dispensation, the Washington-Pyongyang relations are unlikely to change drastically. The new Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton has vowed to pursue the present incumbent Condelleeza Rice's six-party formula. This is where Kim Jong's successor plans come into the picture. Who is the ruler counts a great deal in sensing the direction in which the relations would be moving in the days to come and chalk out a suitable strategy. To whom Kim Jong II will bequeath his legacy – Un or Nam - is still anybody's guess.

THIS EDITORIAL appeared in OMAN TRIBUNE, 17 January 2009

Play fair, Mr Putin!

ENERGY is the lifeline for nations. Hence the current imbroglio over the disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine over the past two weeks is a serious issue – particularly at a time when the entire Europe is in the midst of severe winter. Russia, one of the world’s largest gas producer, and Ukraine – an erstwhile satellite state of the now-dissolved USSR – are at loggerheads over payment and alleged gas siphoning off by Ukraine through whose territory the gigantic gas pipeline network runs. Europe’s dismay over its citizens and industry being put to unwarranted hardships for no fault of theirs is eminently understandable in view of the fact that they have already coughed up the requisite money towards gas.

Two weeks is too long a period to find a solution to this stalemate. The European Union imports a fifth of its gas from Russia via Ukraine and it is a genuine attempt on its part to wholeheartedly go in for environmental-friendly gas fuel route and thus assist climate control initiatives. But no country would like to be held hostage over energy supply by outsiders because such a step is counterproductive for suppliers as well as consumers. Besides the vicarious or sadistic pleasure of making others suffer, Russia has nothing to gain. On the contrary, its reputation as a reliable gas supplier would suffer which in the long run would affect its business. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s remarks in Berlin this week that the non-cooperation on the part of both Russia and Ukraine to find an amicable truce over the gas dispute would ultimately lead to a loss of credibility in Russia as a reliable business partner.

The EU-brokered peace plan between the disputing parties has not yielded the desired results so far. Eighteen countries in the EU conglomerate are losing out with factory closure due to lack of gas supply and probable social unrest owing to lack of communal heating. Russia’s belligerence to cow down Ukraine for whatever reasons is a different issue altogether. The call to allow gas to flow to Europe while they settle their payment dispute has fallen on deaf eyes.

Therefore, Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Ukraine of taking Europe “hostage” sounds hollow. He cannot complain if German Chancellor were to speak up her mind during her meeting with him this week in Berlin. Meanwhile, the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev proposal for a summit on the gas crisis in Moscow has not gone down well with the EU leaders. Why Moscow and why not some place in Europe? is doing the rounds now. The location of the summit, if it is to be held, should not become a bugbear. Wherever they meet, the outcome is of paramount importance.

How far the fear in European capitals that Russia is trying to divide the EU bloc using the proposed summit is valid, nobody knows. But one thing is clear: Russia is testing everyone’s patience and such needling would not be in its own interest in the long run. The Russian suggestion for the takeover of Ukrainian pipeline network by international partners for smooth operations may not go down well with Ukraine. Resume gas supply to Europe without any further delay and sit across the table with Ukraine to sort out differences. This is the only solution that will satisfy all parties. Don’t prevaricate. Play fair, Mr Putin!

THIS EDITORIAL appeared in OMAN TRIBUNE, 16 January 2009