At the Crossroads

The stars of Anwar Ibrahim, the former Deputy Premier of Malaysia and the leader of three-party conservative Islamic PAS party, are on the ascendancy. A decade after leaving the political stage, he is re-emerging as a strong political force to reckon with. Soon after winning the November election with spectacular results - one third of Parliament seats and five out of 13 states - thus paving way for his re-entry into active politics, the Opposition alliance has dealt a several blow to the ruling alliance led by United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) by winning a crucial by-election from the coastal seat of Kuala Terengganu this week.

The Terengganu defeat is a personal blow for Deputy Premier Najib Razak, who incidentally led the ruling alliance both in November general elections and the recent by-election. Come March, he would be elevated to the Premier's seat replacing Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as agreed upon by UMNO, which has been at the helm of affairs for over half a century. The 27-million Malaysia, populated with Muslims, Chinese and Indian minorities, is facing trouble on several fronts. Though UMNO has the backing of majority Malays, the party is losing grip on the natives on account of mismanagement. Simultaneously it has been gradually losing the support of the ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities through its pro-Malay policy orientation.

Astute and shrewd Ibrahim has, rightly, cashed in on the growing disenchantment of these groups and staging a cool comeback. Though the next general elections are not due before 2013, a regime change is a possibility if Ibrahim could convince 30 odd law-makers to defect to his rainbow coalition that could disturb the political equilibrium in the 222-seat Parliament. The Opposition is wooing the ethnic minorities with the promise of removing the 38-year old policy which stipulates that non-Malays have to pay more for homes and enjoy access to jobs and contracts only after Malays' allocation has been fully met. Ibrahim is not to be taken lightly if the poll performance is any indication. Notwithstanding the fact that he could not realize the dream of toppling the government before September last year, the former powerhorse has not abandoned his main objective: get back to power. Surprisingly, the electorate has ignored the apprehensions that his alliance is not a workable proposition and voted for his alliance. This definitely is a big boost for Ibrahim.

Opinion is divided as to how seriously the Kuala Terengganu poll verdict would affect Najib's future. Until now, he remains unopposed for the Premier's post. But anything can happen between now and the D-day. UMNO, or for that matter Najib, has to focus on addressing a few key issues on a war footing: regain the confidence of the majority Malays through the promise of good governance and simultaneously win over the ethnic minorities that UMNO is an inclusive party which will work for the best interests all people irrespective of their caste, creed and religion. Indeed, it will be tough call, but a party that has been in power for more than half a century knows the power dynamics. The Kuala Terengganu verdict should serve as a warning bell for the ruling elite. Those who ignore people's wishes in a democratic set up have a heavy price to pay. Is Najib ready to sit in the Opposition for the first time in the Malaysian Parliament and create history of different sorts? We don't think so.

THIS EDITORIAL appeared in OMAN TRIBUNE, 20 January 2009